COVID-19, 20…21?

I’ve been trying to game this out. The immense scope of this pandemic is sometimes hard to fathom. By definition it’s global. But the scope. Damn. It’s everywhere.

And the growth, globally, isn’t showing any sign of slowing.

We’ve seen the photos in Italy and China and, now, New York, of refrigerated trucks for corpse storage. That’s unfathomable to me. And the developed countries, while stressed, will get through it by hook or by crook, McGyver-ing up some 2 for 1 or 4 for one vents and a bunch of people will die, but there will be an end to it. Sometime not entirely known by anybody (the ranges of both deaths and duration are broad enough to steam a trawler through). 2 or 3 or 4% of those infected will die and it will be a small fraction of the total population.

There are some countries, though, where the medical infrastructure is much worse, where dictators refuse to acknowledge (or are ignorant) the virulence of this virus and entire swaths of the population will be felled.

Last I checked (three minutes ago) 204 countries were impacted. If the leadership (at some level) enforced self-isolation, the death per capita remained low. If, as in the case of the Florida Governor, fuck all was done, the impact is and will be horrendous.

If (and this whole shit show is a flock of “if”s) the growth doesn’t abate soon, the southern hemisphere, coming into winter, is going to see an increased growth.

This pandemic, to state the obvious, is going to change the world.

Except North Korea. They apparently have lucked out and have recorded no cases, and will be as fucked up after as they were before.

How it changes the world remains to be seen. But I’ve been thinking…

  • A number of large companies are going to fail. Some airlines. Some cruise line companies. A lot of small cafes, restaurants and bistros (which sucks),
  • Some companies, if they manage to weather the initial rush, will thrive. Telecommunications providers. Mobile operators. Companies providing remote video access to others in a company. Companies delivering — anything (food, electronics, alcohol, you name it) in a safe manner.
  • But those are obvious. There will be less obvious, and if any of you can figure them out, let me know. My Super is taking a hammering and I’m going to need to turbo charge it.

So. How long are we going to be self-isolating? Certainly longer than Easter. Certainly longer than the end of April, or even May. It’s been suggested that we’re in it (here in Australia) for six months.

Whatever it takes.

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